”Fortune does not examine causes nor follow merit but meanders through everything without distinction.” It is interesting to come across wisdom like this amid thoughts about making reasoned decisions, weighing arguments carefully and keeping an open mind. By all means, do everything you can to be rational in your decision making.
But also don’t be surprised if the irrational wins out. Haphazard, stupid ideas sometimes succeed while the well thought out falls apart. There is no rational justice in the world. We show good judgment with the understanding that there will be millions of decisions in life, those who approach them rationally will over time have a higher percentage of good ones.
Rationality does not, however, guarantee success in any individual action or choice. Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorem tells us that there is no perfect system, all contain contradictions. So true for our understanding of the world. There is dumb random luck and perhaps hidden forces we will never understand.